June 2025 Research Rundown
By Madie Spartz
For Junes Research Rundown—our curated list of recent, relevant research we think is worth adding to the education equity conversation—we highlight articles on declining student achievement, new absenteeism data, and career development pathways for Twin Cities’ youth.
Puzzling Over Declining Student Achievement
Annenberg Institute at Brown University, May 2025
This paper examines declining test scores through a lens not often discussed in a “post-pandemic” world: the author argues that almost 50% of pandemic learning loss can be attributed to declining achievement before 2019. By examining trends in National Assessment for Educational Progress (NAEP) scores from 1990 onward, the paper highlights the fact that while the pandemic undoubtedly accelerated learning loss, test scores had been falling since 2013. Furthermore, while NAEP scores increased steadily from 1990 to 2013, increases were slowing or plateauing as early as 2007. Little is known about why, however, so the paper examines five commonly-cited reasons for declining achievement and explores the empirical evidence of each:
- The end of “consequential” school accountability, generally conflated with the end of No Child Left Behind and beginning of the Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA) in 2015, which returned much of school accountability to the states. The authors report that there is little, if any, causal evidence to support or refute this claim.
- School funding reductions in the Great Recession. There is causal evidence to suggest that reductions in per-pupil spending impacted NAEP scores. The authors estimate that one-quarter of student achievement decline from 2009-2019 can be attributed to reduced school funding; in some states, the effects could be much greater.
- Development of the Common Core, a nationwide effort to make curriculum and learning standards more rigorous. Studying the impact of Common Core implementation is challenging, and there is little evidence it is causally connected to declining achievement.
- Smartphones and social media, the use of which increased almost in lockstep with declining test scores. The evidence is correlational, however, and while it may make intuitive sense, there is not currently robust causal evidence to suggest that smartphones and social media are directly attributable to NAEP scores.
- The impact of state and local policies, mainly the science of reading, does have strong evidence for the improvement of student achievement. The author extrapolates the impact of Mississippi’s science of reading policy to suggest it could be responsible for 30% of Mississippi’s reading gains from 2013-2019, a time when most other states’ scores were falling.
- Increases in student challenges, such as poverty or English learner status, are consistently discussed alongside declining achievement rates because students in those groups saw test scores decline faster and further than other students. There is robust causal evidence linking family income to student achievement, but it can be hard to untangle since family poverty is correlated with so many other factors that may influence student achievement.; English learner status is one example.
Why This Matters in Minnesota
We have been talking about concerning trends in student achievement for years, and the COVID pandemic accelerated a pattern that was already unfolding. The author of this article makes an important point that declines in test scores and gaps between student groups did not start with COVID, so addressing their roots need to extend beyond COVID as well. Policymakers need strong evidence for what influences student achievement, both positively and negatively, to find meaningful solutions. Minnesota has addressed some things on this list, such as the passage of the Read Act, which implements the science of reading statewide. On the other hand, both student poverty and the concentration of English learners have increased in Minnesota, but there has not been the same concentrated effort to put specific, widespread support for those students into state policy. The findings of this paper underscore the importance of education policy that is data-informed, rather than a “best guess” for what works.
Lingering Absence in Public Schools: Tracking Post-Pandemic Chronic Absenteeism into Year Four
American Enterprise Institute, June 2025
Using updated data from the 2023-24 school year, this report provides analysis of chronic absenteeism rates nationally, by state, and at the district level. As we know, chronic absenteeism rates were high before the COVID pandemic and skyrocketed in its wake; this report notes that while student attendance is slowly creeping back up, it’s not doing so nearly fast enough. Furthermore, chronic absenteeism is not uniform across the country, and the author emphasizes that in order to craft meaningful solutions to the attendance crisis, it’s critical to analyze a state’s year-over-year data rather than comparing it to national averages. This is because attendance is measured differently across states (or even within them), so nationwide comparisons should be met with caution.
Given that, the report provides analysis of individual states’ change over time, and on that measurement, trends are similar nationwide: in 2022, every state’s chronic absenteeism rate was higher than pre-pandemic. 46 states saw an increase of more than 50%. Additionally, the author analyzed absences by district characteristic and found that districts with high poverty, larger concentrations of students of color, and greater size all had higher chronic absenteeism rates. These findings are consistent with prior research.
Why This Matters in Minnesota
Critically, Minnesota is one of just six states not included in the report’s analysis, because the Minnesota Department of Education still has not published attendance data from the 2023-24 school year. As we’ve discussed before, Minnesota’s attendance data is published on an 18-month lag, so the most recent school year we have data for is 2022-23. New data will come out in August, but not for the school year that just ended; we won’t know anything about this year’s student attendance until 2026. This is a big problem, and one lawmakers tried to solve this year, but were ultimately unsuccessful. Without timely and accurate data, Minnesota cannot respond in real-time to the chronic absenteeism crisis.
Paving the Way to Prosperity: Insights into the Twin Cities Youth Career Pathway Ecosystem
The Minneapolis Foundation, May 2025
This report, published by the Minneapolis Foundation, analyzes the career pathway landscape for young people in the metro area. Informed by interviews with organizations such as Achieve Twin Cities, the City of Minneapolis, and three metro school districts, the report highlights key takeaways for successful career development programs, identifies major challenges, and offers policy recommendations for increasing access to high-quality career pathways for young people.
The first critical factor in youth career pathways is that they must result in a tangible benefit for participants, such as a living wage, job placement, or an educational credential. Programs that offer multiple tangible outcomes through one experience increase their impact accordingly. Additionally, the report finds that the strongest pathways are collaborations with school districts and higher education. They have existing infrastructure to support students and can often offer programming at no cost to young people; one prime example is dual enrollment coursework. Another important feature of successful programs is support services that are embedded alongside the career development offerings, such as social service case management or support in getting a driver’s license.
Why This Matters in Minnesota
The report offers a hyperlocal perspective on youth career development, which is an important bridge between E-12 education and postsecondary opportunities. Racial and income-based disparities in education can and do lead to disparities in workforce outcomes and economic mobility; without a robust ecosystem aimed at bridging those gaps, they will persist. The report’s authors make policy recommendations specific to Minnesota, including adjusting the PSEO funding model to incentivize high schools to utilize PSEO for college and career access. They also recommend loosening restrictions in state law around “seat time” so more students can access work-based learning opportunities in high school. The recommendations highlight the need for policymakers in Minnesota to be both responsive and proactive when it comes to career development for young people.